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Pick the results of the remaining matches and see how every team's odds change. Each change replays the rest of the phase 10,000 times.
Matches you don't pick are simulated from their probabilities.
1 of 10 matches have a market line; the rest use our model.
| Now | Team | Pts | Avg | 1–8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 32 | 1.8 | 100% |
| 2 | América | 30 | 2.1 | 100% |
| 3 | Guadalajara | 30 | 2.3 | 100% |
| 4 | Toluca | 27 | 4.4 | 100% |
| 5 | Atlas | 27 | 5.0 | 100% |
| 6 | Santos | 25 | 6.2 | 86% |
| 7 | León | 23 | 8.6 | 39% |
| 9 | Tijuana | 22 | 8.8 | 53% |
| 8 | Pachuca | 22 | 8.9 | 48% |
| 10 | Monterrey | 21 | 9.4 | 40% |
| 12 | Querétaro | 20 | 10.5 | 20% |
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 21 | 10.7 | 14% |
| 13 | Puebla | 19 | 12.9 | – |
| 14 | Atlético de San Luis | 19 | 13.5 | – |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 15 | 15.3 | – |
| 16 | Atlante | 14 | 16.1 | – |
| 17 | Necaxa | 13 | 16.8 | – |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 11 | 17.8 | – |
10,000 simulations · Probabilities, not certainties.
Every remaining match has a probability for 1, X and 2: the betting market's, with the bookmaker's margin removed, once a line is out (about 48 hours before kick-off), otherwise our model's.
For clubs, the model uses our club Elo rating: a starting level for each club, updated after every result in the club competitions we cover, plus home advantage.
With those probabilities we play out the rest of the phase thousands of times, with realistic scorelines, and rank every table with the same tie-breakers as the official standings. The percentages are the share of simulations in which each outcome happens.
Probabilities, not certainties.